4
Starting the next Bubble?
By: Kevin Xu
I have been known to be a “futurist” and by that I mean half my mind is always in the future. I’m usually thinking of things that will happen in the near future and how I can prepare for it and also the far future and what I can expect. And lately I’ve been noticing that my venture into startups might be very bad timing.
I graduate from high school in 2009. I will be in college from 2009-2013 and that will probably be the optimal time to fully indulge myself in a possible startup and physically be around the tech areas such as Silicon Valley. My concern is how long will the momentum of tech startups, web 2.0, and all the hype last?
Currently it is a great time to enter the market and niche that I am looking into. It is clear that the market will increase and may not peak for a while but I fear that when I finally do enter it, it will decline. It will be at the point where it really has reached it’s maximum and start to drop. You really do not want to enter a market as it starts to drop.
As history has taught me very well, the general population gets caught up in many hypes of the generation without realizing it. Always into the “next best thing” such as the New World, the Wild West, the farm life, and the industrial life. If your history is a little fuzzy for you, here’s one great example: The California Gold Rush. One rumor of gold and in only one year, literally thousands if not millions of eager men made the long journey to California to find gold. And sadly most failed.
So is history repeating itself as California becomes a hotspot for money-makers again? One can get very debatable about this issue but the point I’m trying to make is that I don’t want to be caught up in the hype nor do I want to be too late.
Is it possible to start the “next best thing”? The next Bubble, such as semantic web 3.0 or some socio-economic-Second-Life-based movement? The problem with that is, as I have learned from history, it takes more than two kids to start that kind of thing.
So the best option for me? Start now. Create a concept and push it out and make it public ASAP so only time will tell what happens to the market. Problem is that “now” isn’t exactly the ideal timing for me.
Junior year hasn’t really gotten to me as the toughest year ever but very time-consuming at least. I am currently studying fervently (SAT word) because it is my last obstacle to getting into my dream college. Combine this with other projects I am working on currently and you really just get bad timing. They all started around the same time and end around the same time as well (End of Jan.) so it wasn’t possible to focus on only one at a time. Then I already have another slew of projects* coming up at the same time and once again ending at the same time. Talk about awkward timing O.o
So next best option? Starting in the summer. I am definitely not going to waste this summer and hope to actually push something tangible (as tangible as the web is) out. I need to start learning basic programming and other programming languages so that I could help out Josh more and really work as a team.
Good thing about noticing this? I’m still young, I turn 17 on January 6 =D
~Kevin X
January 4th, 2008 at 11:39 am
man, if i knew what i know now when i was 17, i’d have done some things differently. start now kev. and all the best with your endeavours. maybe oneday you’ll need a caretaker at your multi-billion dollar silicon valley head office. give me a call…
January 4th, 2008 at 12:15 pm
You sound like you’re in the same boat as me…
If you were here in Britain you would be studying A levels - which are the hardest thing I have ever done. You say SATs aren’t the most taxing thing you’ve ever done but they seem to carry equal weight to A levels - fail and you screw up your future, right? I’m 2 months and four days older than you (hence you are in the same school year as me)and by the sounds of it you’re exactly the same as me; want to get a startup going but have little time or resources to do so.
Email me if you fancy getting to know a British teen trying to get heard too. Influencing the world is as hard on this side of the pond as on that side!
Seb Huckle
January 4th, 2008 at 6:24 pm
@Jansie: Haha thanks for your good wishes. Starting young does have its potential so I will definitely try my best. Don’t worry, my people will be in touch with your people ;D
@Huckle: You’re right, we really are in the same boat. Education at our age and our dreams coincide and it just plain sucks out our time. I sent you an email too so keep in touch!
January 5th, 2008 at 5:05 pm
You’re going to want to teach yourself Python, then, or possibly Ruby. Those are the best programming languages to learn if you want to start building programs that work and do it fast, but not really the best if you want to Learn How to Be a Programmer. I seem to remember hearing that Ruby is a variation on Python that many people greatly prefer to it, but you can easily start with Python and move on to Ruby. A word of caution, though: The website is python.org, not python.com. Python.com is not a website you want to visit.
January 6th, 2008 at 12:40 am
Haha thanks for the caution. A quick Google search revealed the reason why.
Python is definitely the direction I’m aiming for. They also branched off into a language called Django that I hope to start with too but of course, basics are basics so HTML, CSS, and PHP too. Thanks for the comment, it really reinforces my decision.
January 8th, 2008 at 6:09 pm
Kevin,
When i was 17, i was more concerned with a traditional career path. Sadly it took me 2 more years to realise it wasn’t going to work out. Then i figured “Why not be my own boss?”, so i cooked up a fancy web 2.0 business plan, and showed it to a few people.
Sadly though, it didn’t get much backing. It was also a bit too unrealistic as i assumed i could implement and market everything myself in the first year without employees. So i had a little re-think.
In the end i just decided to freelance.
My personal advice regarding learning programming ( which you should take with a pinch of salt of course
):
Don’t rely on tutorials or quick references, as they can lead to a cut ‘n paste mentality. Start off writing small programs (or scripts depending on terminology) and gradually build up. It also helps to tinker with existing code, as you can learn a lot more about practical application than a mere reference could tell you. As with most things, experience is key.
In any case, i wish you the best of luck in your endeavours.
~ James
January 9th, 2008 at 3:14 am
James, thank you very much for your comment. It was really insightful especially since it comes from someone with experience.
I totally understand what you are saying in terms of tutorials or quick references. I really need to start in the coding basics where I can understand why the stuff works like it does and then progress on to advanced simpler ways like Python or Ruby. Josh has sufficient experience and will be guiding me and acting as my teacher along the way.
I wish you good luck in your endeavors as well!